Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Update on Severe Weather Potential Weds. / Weds. Night in the South...

Above is the updated severe weather outlook for tomorrow and tomorrow night from the SPC in Norman, OK. As you can see, severe thunderstorms are still forecast (within the yellow shaded area) across portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.  The Eastern edge of the outlook area has been trimmed back a bit as compared to the earlier outlook...mainly because there is some question as to how unstable the atmosphere will be able to become across Alabama on Wednesday night.

Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible within the severe weather outlook area.  The main threat will develop by mid through late afternoon across the Western portion of the outlook area, and will spread East/Northeast during the evening hours Wednesday and into the pre-dawn hours Thursday toward the Eastern portions of the outlook area.

At this time there is some question as to just how strong the surface winds will become across the region, which will dictate exactly how high the tornado threat will be.  Right now the strength of the surface winds looks to be relatively weak, which would tend to limit the tornado threat to only a few of the more organized storms.  If the winds become stronger during the day than currently expected, this threat will increase.  We'll need to look closely at this aspect of things on Wednesday morning...

Folks living across this region should remain alert on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Take the time to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips now, and have a sheltering plan in mind should severe weather threaten your area.

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