Thursday, February 2, 2012

Severe Weather Update for Today through Friday...

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today and tonight from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. Severe thunderstorms are forecast within the yellow shaded area on the image.  Other, generally non-severe, thunderstorms are possible within the surrounding green shaded areas.

Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary threats within the severe weather outlook area late today and tonight.  A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, but are not the primary threats.

A trough of low pressure continues to organize over the southwest and into the Rockies this morning, with several disturbances poised to lift out over the adjacent Plains later today and into the weekend...

One such disturbance is forecast to move out over the Plains of northwest Texas and western Oklahoma later this evening and into tonight.  The low-levels of the atmosphere will gradually become more unstable across this region during the day today, as low-level moisture flows Northward into the area from the Gulf of Mexico.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and/or west-central Texas generally after 5pm CST today, and into this evening.  This activity will increase in coverage and intensity as it moves and/or develops into adjacent portions of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas later this evening and into the nighttime hours tonight.

In addition to the threat of large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with localized amounts near 3 inches are possible from portions of southwest and southcentral Kansas into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, mainly tonight:

The threat of severe weather will spread Eastward on Friday, within and near the yellow shaded areas on the SPC outlook below:

The threat on Friday will include the Oklahoma City and Dallas/Ft. Worth Metro areas.  

Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at sunrise Friday near the Western edge of the outlook area, and will continue to progress Eastward during the day.  Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary severe weather threats.  Since the thunderstorms are generally expected to maintain the form of a large cluster or complex of activity, the threat of tornadoes will be minimal.

The threat of locally heavy rainfall will spread Eastward across the region on Friday, reaching the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region by Friday night: 

Folks living across the severe weather threat areas for later today and Friday should remain alert.  Review severe weather safety and preparedness tips now and have a plan of action ready should threatening weather approach your area.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or another trusted source for later information, including any watches and/or warnings.

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