Sunday, February 19, 2012

Update on Appalachians Winter Storm...

Snow is breaking out on the Northern edge of the precipitation shield this morning, as you can see by the latest radar mosaic above. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from northcentral Tennessee across southeast Kentucky, southern West Virginia and western Virginia, as shown by the pink shaded area on the image below:

Elsewhere, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect in the tan shaded areas for today.

The heaviest snowfall today is expected to take place across southwest Virginia, where 8-10 inches are likely, with locally higher amounts.  Elsewhere across the Winter Storm Warning area, widespread amounts of 2-4 inches with locally heavy amounts of 3-6 inches will be most common.

The series of images below shows the snowfall accumulation forecast as indicated by the SREF computer model for the indicated times.  The scale in inches is located at the left hand side of each image.

The first is valid at 1pm EST:

...then 4pm EST:

...then 7pm EST:

...and finally, 10pm EST:

Based on the above, it still appears that snow will remain light across the Washington DC area, with little to no accumulation.  Further South, across Virginia, 3-6 inches are likely in the Roanoke area, with locally heavier amounts likely just off to the West and Southwest of there.  In the Richmond area, 2-4 inches appear likely, mainly this evening and early tonight.

Travel is discouraged across the Winter Storm Warning area today and tonight.  If you must travel, please allow extra time to reach your destination and check on road conditions before heading out.

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